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| The impact of Michael Jackson’s death and the news for June 09 on news websites |
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| In this study, we are interested in the impact which current events have on the traffic on French news websites in June 2009. How do internet users follow the news in France? Which news among those reported by the media aroused the most interest in June? |
| Cross section: |
- Study carried out from June 1 to 30, 2009
- Cross section of 11 big news websites
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Let’s remember the important facts of the news for June 2009 in France:
- June 1: crash AF 447 Rio-Paris
- June 6 and 7: Obama family in France: Normandy commemoration
- June 7: European elections (enforced by Bayrou / Cohn-Bendit debates on June 4)
- June 10: Hadopi law censured by Constitutional Council
- June 13: Iranian elections
- June 15: beginning of demonstrations and confrontations in Iran
- June 23: government reshuffle in France
- June 25 (evening): Michael Jackson’s death
- June 30: crash A310 Yemenia in Comoros
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| The news for June boost news websites traffic |
The graph below shows the hourly evolution of overall traffic on French news websites of our cross section (see methodology) during the month of June 2009.
Real traffic (in orange) is compared with an estimation of this traffic adjusted for unusual fluctuations which can be explained neither by day nor by hour (in blue).
It enables us to observe exceptional peaks of traffic throughout the month, especially:
- On June 2, the first spread of information concerning the crash AF 447 Rio-Paris
- On June 7, the results of the European elections 2009
- On June 26, the day after Michael Jackson’s death
According to our estimates, on dates listed above, and especially on Friday June 26, news websites have observed an impact on the number of visits registered.
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| Michael Jackson: impact record for news websites |
An average estimation of unpredictable fluctuations observed on traffic of news websites is presented below.
For example, on June 2, the day after the crash AF 447 Rio-Paris, news websites registered an increase in visits of 12% compared to the estimated traffic under ordinary conditions.
Same effect on Saturday June 7, day of the results of the European elections, with an estimated gain of 19% (and 13% on June 8).
Last but not least, the announcement of Michael Jackson’ death spread online on June 25, 11 pm (local time in Paris). In the first hours on Friday June 26, we observe an exceptional increase in visits on news websites. At the end of the day, websites registered a traffic growth of 38 %.
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| Focus on crash AF 447 Rio-Paris |
As we have seen above, we estimate that news websites registered an increase of visits of 12% on Tuesday June 2, when the first information about the circumstances of the crash AF 447 Rio-Paris were broadcasted.
The Air France plane disappeared from radar screens on June 1 as yet in mysterious circumstances. Flight AF 447 was omnipresent in the news and the subject of announcements throughout the day and especially during the afternoon:
- At 2:30 pm, Brasilia announced its discovery of aircraft wreckage
- At 3:20 pm, François Fillon confirmed there was no distress call sent by the plane
- At 5:05 pm, announcement of the possible first causes for the crash
The graph below shows the average hourly distribution of unusual traffic of the day.
An estimated 40 % increase of traffic, linked with the circumstances on June 2, concentrates on a time slot between 1 pm – 6 pm. We observe an 8.1 % peak on the usual low during the lunch break and an 11.9 % peak on the time slot 5 pm – 6 pm.
Fragments of news around this event seem to have encouraged a growing curiosity, beginning in the afternoon and ending with the announcement of the final investigation element of the day.
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| Focus on European elections |
The gain of visits corresponding to the European elections is measurable over two days: Sunday June 7 (election in France) with an estimated increase of visits of 19% and Monday June 8, with an estimated increase of visits of 13 %.
On June 7, we can observe that the main increase on news websites concentrates on the evening from 8 pm to midnight: 71.5 % of the estimated increase of traffic is due to this time slot.
It is concordant with the announcement of first results at 8 pm and the official results at 10 pm.
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The next day, Monday June 8, the gain of traffic moderates but still remains measurable (see graph 2 above).
In the early hours of the night, especially from midnight to 1 am, news websites registered a 10.3% increase of incidental traffic of the day. Possibly this effect is due to the announcement of official results two hours before.
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| Focus on Michael Jackson’s death |
As we have seen above, the day after Michael Jackson’s death (June 26) generates the most important impact of the month (+38 % of traffic compared with ordinary conditions).
On average, news websites registered a 10.1 % gain of incidental traffic starting the first hour of the day, in other words immediately after the announcement of Michael Jackson’s death by the American press.
Another peak is obvious between 9 am and 10 am and a renewed interest generates more than 10% of additional traffic from 9 pm to 11 pm.
If we believe these figures, it seems that although the breaking news of Michael Jackson’s death were spread during the night, they circulated at the speed of light. Many people sought confirmation or details about this information on news websites.
As shown by graphs and figures above, news can have a significant impact on the traffic of French news websites. These figures attest fast reactions of internet users seeking information, including cases of unexpected events. Even at night, the news of Michael Jackson’s death generated an immediate impact that boosted the audience of news websites, at a rather quiet hour…
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Methodology:
This analysis aims to estimate traffic fluctuation at a given moment seeming unusual under ordinary conditions.
Non-parametric method to deconstruct a time series for seasonal adjustment enables each website to break up traffic in long term trend components, cyclical components (Day* hour) and irregular components in which we are interested.
The cyclical component refers to quasi-periodic motion around the trend pointing up a succession of phases of growth and recession. More precisely, for one website, the cyclical component corresponds to an usual traffic drop observed during the weekend compared with a week day, combined with a traffic drop observed during the night compared with day, if that is the case.
The method developed for this study is based on the X11 algorithm method used for seasonal adjustment.
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